The NFL is doing great when it comes to the quarterback position. Nearly all top signalers are young or in their prime. That’s why the race for the NFL MVP award is a hotly contested battle to watch each season. And mainly, it’s very difficult for a non-quarterback player to win this award.
As a result, looking at the current betting odds for the 2023 NFL MVP award winners, it’s no surprise quarterbacks reign supreme. Who are the top names listed first on the betting board for this award? Today we take a look at the top eight players with the highest NFL MVP potential.
What value might each player hold in terms of betting, or why should certain players and their stakes be avoided in the end?
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes +700 odds
It’s perhaps no surprise that Patrick Mahomes is the current frontrunner for 2023 NFL MVP. He is on track to win MVP last year and win a Super Bowl. In fact, Mahomes became the first player since Kurt Warner in 1999 to win NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same season. Overall, Mahomes has a career-high 5,250 passing yards since last year. He will rack up 41 passing touchdowns in 2022, the second time he has surpassed 40 passing touchdowns in a single season.
Even though Mahomes is a betting favourite, he can still offer great value to bettors. The Chiefs currently don’t have the best weaponry that other teams seem to have, at least at the wide receiver position. The story didn’t hold him back last year. This could make him another NFL MVP, especially if he can pass for 5,000+ yards and at least 40 passing touchdowns as easily as he did last year.
Joe Burrow +750 odds
The odds probably reflect the overall quarterback ranking at the moment. If Mahomes didn’t exist, the top name I’d want the team to lead would be Joe Burrow. Burrow’s combination of composure, leadership and accuracy in all areas of the field has transformed the Bengals into one of the most prolific offenses in the entire league. In addition, Burrow and Cincinnati have advanced to the AFC Championship Game in each of the two seasons he has completed.
Burrow’s value may not be as opportunistic as some of the names below the list. But from a player’s standpoint and a team-wide standpoint, this quarterback and his team are probably best positioned to win the Deep AFC if the Chiefs don’t win again. Burrow’s hype and recognition has certainly grown quickly, as it should be. Ultimately, though, if the Bengals make it to the AFC title or the Super Bowl again, the domestic media may be ready to lead him to more trophies.
Josh Allen +800 odds
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills fell short of expectations as they were last year’s Super Bowl contenders. Despite facing many unforeseen challenges throughout 2022, they still won many matches. The Bills and their quarterback have certainly had a few rough weeks. Elsewhere, Allen was able to bounce back in important games against the best teams in the league. Compared to Mahomes and Burrow, Allen has yet to fully mature in terms of decision-making.
Buffalo is an obvious candidate for a slight setback on record in the congested AFC East. Honestly, Allen can be seen as a bit of a double-edged sword when it comes to stakes. If he can do a career-type campaign with a supposedly weak Bills roster, Allen might have solid grounds for NFL MVP. But if the Bills really are struggling more than they’ve seen in years, Buffalo’s signal-caller may not offer the highest bet. This might be a name to avoid altogether.
Jalen Hurts +1100 odds
The Philadelphia Eagles had all the makings to be a breakthrough team in 2022. The biggest question was whether Jalen Hurts could make significant progress as an all-around passer. Even with Philadelphia using his feet, it’s safe to say his throwing has improved a lot. He might have won the NFL MVP last year had it not been for the injury he sustained late in the regular season. The Eagles failed to win Super Bowl XV against the Kansas City Chiefs. But Hearts has firmly put his name on the map for his near future.
This is a far more prominent stake than someone like Allen, personally. It’s no secret that the NFC is a far less competitive conference than the AFC. If all goes well, the Eagles could really get as close to perfection as they did last season. For example, with Philadelphia and Hearts dominating in wire-to-wire production, the NFL MVP could be the Eagles’ quarterback. +1100 odds are worth the risk in my opinion.
Justin Herbert +1300 odds
Justin Herbert enters 2023 in a glamorous position. He and the rest of the Chargers offense have a very good chance of becoming one of the NFL’s top five offenses. A supporting cast of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler is something other teams have been coveting. Los Angeles, on the other hand, enters the season with quite a few question marks on defense.
That could probably lead to one of two outcomes for Herbert and the LA offense. First, stat sheets and scoreboards can be lit up regularly each week. The Chargers, too, could get in their own way with self-inflicted mistakes, as they occasionally saw last year. His overall accomplishments may also fall somewhere between these extremes. Ideally, Herbert’s value is fair. But if you want to bet on someone with higher odds, the next three names could all be more attractive.
Trevor Lawrence +1400 odds
Trevor Lawrence was far from perfect in 2022. But it was a welcome sign of progress after a trying rookie season. A coach change to Doug Pederson will always be a big ticket to some success. In the end, he finished the season well and the Jaguars were able to pull off a come-from-behind win during the wild card round.
The value of Lawrence’s bet will undoubtedly play into his entire campaign. But in 2023, the Jaguars have some significant periods of time playing last year’s playoff team, or near playoff team, in a short span. Jacksonville will face both Kansas City and Buffalo in the early stages. Back-to-back Pittsburgh and San Francisco midway through the year will be an interesting test. Finally, Lawrence and the Jaguars will face Cincinnati and Baltimore, respectively, in prime-time matchups in early December. Will this quarterback be able to garner enough national buzz to win an NFL MVP award, and compared to those last two names of his, it might not be that likely.
Lamar Jackson +1500 odds
I know Lamar Jackson has not finished a season due to injury in either of the last two years. But at +1500 odds, we really like the betting value of this number, probably at least half or more of the aforementioned names. The Baltimore Ravens needed a replacement offensive coordinator. With Greg Roman out and Todd Monken joining in that particular spot, hopefully Jackson will have more consistent throwing opportunities.
If he can find more success as a passer, especially if he puts in more volume in that area, his NFL MVP potential could rise immediately during the season. Jackson is also surrounded by new wide receivers like Odell Beckham Jr. and newcomer Zai Flowers. If the two make an immediate impact, Jackson has been an amazing betting value here, currently sitting at No. 7 on this NFL MVP betting odds list.
Aaron Rodgers +1600 odds
Like Jackson, I was a little surprised that Aaron Rodgers had such long betting odds. Part of that may be due to his very poor performance last season by his standards. There’s also some question about him switching teams and joining one of the most disappointing NFL franchises in history. By no means is it guaranteed that Rodgers and the Jets will be great.
But what if we had the highly competitive and inspiring motivation that Rodgers showed in his best season? Maybe he’s playing with plenty of meanness to prove . All in all, if New York does well, the national trend is sure to see Rodgers win the NFL MVP award again. If you believe in Rodgers and the Jets’ progress, this could be a fun bet risk.
